Fox News poll finds Biden ahead of Trump by two points

[Blkfyre]

https://ground.news/article/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-in-biden-trump-matchup-since-may_87b449

President Joe Biden has jumped ahead of former President Donald Trump in a Fox News poll of a hypothetical matchup between the two for the first time since October, a shift since Trump was convicted on all counts in his Manhattan hush money trial.

The Fox News poll found 50% of surveyed voters would cast their ballots for Biden while 48% would do so for Trump in a two-way race. That's a 2 percentage point shift since the network's last poll in May, where Trump led Biden 49% to 48%.

It will be interesting to see how Trump fans spin this since they can't claim liberal bias from a FAUX NEWS poll...

[HighStepper]

Two things, (1) the poll results are in the margin of error. (2) you don't get to be president by winning nationally. Key is the electoral college map where 270 votes are needed.

Looking at current polling Biden has 226 electoral votes and Trump is ahead with 268 selectorial votes. If Biden can win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin he can get to the 270 votes needed. Biden and Trump are about tied in those states.

[dogwalker]

I'll second what HS said.
Presidents are elected by the Electoral College not surveyed voters
(some of which lie on surveys or change their mind later).
The electoral college in turn largely votes according to party affiliations in the Senate and House.
However some of those affiliations will not be known until the next election.
As HS said, if you want to try to figure out who is the next President then analyze how the Electoral college might vote.
Yes voters vote for members of the Senate and House but only votes for House members are truly representational.  A state with a low population can vote in a Senator of a particular party and then that can result in 1 electoral college vote.......and that is how and why even if someone wins a popular vote (based on   House affiliations) they can still lose an election (based on House + Senate affiliations). A lot of Senate-based electoral college votes in low population states can skew the vote away from what the popular vote was. Rules in some states as to whether electoral college votes are split according to popular vote or a winner takes all situation (where >50% of vote for a candidate can result in "extra", non-representational electoral college votes) complicate it further.




 

[HighStepper]

Rules in some states as to whether electoral college votes are split according to popular vote or a winner takes all situation (where >50% of vote for a candidate can result in "extra", non-representational electoral college votes) complicate it further.

48 states and the District of Columbia use a winner-take-all system for awarding their electoral votes. Nebraska with 5 electoral votes and Maine with 4 electoral votes allocate their electoral votes proportionally based on a candidate's performance in each congressional district and the statewide performance.